LISTEN TO THE EPISODE ON ITUNES:
Jeff Weiser: Don’t figure out who in your space is good and try to be better than they are. Figure out what space is the best at each facet and try to be as good as the best player in each space.
I’m your host, Dave Knox, and this is Predicting the Turn. A show that helps business leaders meet their industries inevitable disruption head on.
Welcome to another edition of Predicting the Turn. Today I am joined with a great marketing leader, Jeff Weiser from Shopify who recently joined as their chief marketing officer. Jeff has a great background across the world of the evolution of marketing and excited to have him join the call. So Jeff, welcome.
Jeff Weiser: Thanks so much for having me. It’s great to be with you and Predicting the Turn.
Dave Knox: Well, thank you. I want to start talking a little bit about your career. You, for the last decade have really been leading Strategy and Analytics for groups that specialize in marketing optimization, with companies like Beachbody and Yahoo! and Social Gaming Network and even Myspace back in the day. But, then you went broader across all of the marketing with roles at Shutterstock and now at Shopify. Can you talk a little bit about that journey because it is kind of a different one for a lot of CMOs and the thread of how you used data and technology for marketing?
Jeff Weiser: Thanks for asking the question. I think at the moment it’s a slightly unusual path for a CMO. I think if you fast forward five or ten years, it will be a much more common one. But eventually I’m a victim of the idea that quant is sort of eating the world and describe myself to people as sort of an accidental CMO and what I mean by that is that if you would have asked 10-15 years ago would you ever be in marketing, I’d say probably not. What I did was run strategy and analytics departments and we did a whole range of things that used quant, anything form basic basic reporting, dash boarding to a lot of financial planning type work, budgeting, financial analysis, etc., some corp dev-type things like M&A all the way up to advanced predictive modeling and data science and I was very happy doing that and as marketing became more quantitative, just within over the last 10-15 years marketers started coming to me increasingly saying things like, hey I’m running a CRM department and I’d love to have analytically derived segments, can you help? Or I’ve got in the $100 million budget and I need to figure out the optimal way to deploy it, can you help? And I’d say, I don’t really know but the quant group will be happy to take a look at it. And as we did and as we gave data driven advice, marketers started to get good results and so companies are like, well, these marketers are doing kind of well when they use the analytics, why don’t we try moving one marketing group directly under Jeff. So I took a CRM group on and we doubled the revenue in the first two years. And they were like, that was pretty good, why don’t we try moving an acquisition group under Jeff. So every year I would kind of chip away a little bit at marketing and so the line between what was quant and what was marketing was awfully blurred and then still surprised when my phone started ringing with offers to be a CMO, but I decided to go for it because it let me complete a career pivot, not living in two worlds at once and I really think that increasingly, you know you can’t throw the baby out with the bath water and lose the creative element as well, but I do think that increasingly marketing will be driven by the ones and zeros and so it just made a lot of sense and I’ve been able to sort of bring that analytical discipline to the marketing side and pick up a bunch of new skills along the way that I didn’t have on creative side. So, it’s been really good.
Dave Knox: Very cool and related to that a lot of marketers will come up from a silo, your’s is a unique one that’s growing in importance, whether it’s creative or analytic or brand and suddenly one day you’re supposed to be leading all of these different functions when you get that stripe as a VP or as a CMO. How do you prepare yourself for leading those functions of marketing where you didn’t necessarily grow up in or have a deep experience in?
Jeff Weiser: Right, it’s a good question. I’ve always been of the mind set that you don’t need to be a functional expert in everything that you manage. If that were the case you’d never have CEOs, right? And so, I think that leadership skills will get you a pretty decent bit of the way, meaning if we can articulate pretty clearly what we expect out of a given area and can set up measurements, qualitative or quantitative, it really can be either, that indicates success, then at least we know what the expectations for that discipline are, then it’s a matter of going out and getting an expert who’s got a track record of delivering those outcomes in the past, and being a good leader to them. So I don’t really thin, you need to know hands on keyboard, how to do everything that you manage. That said, when I first made the leap from being a quantitative marketer to being a full fledge CMO, I did pick up a lot of skills I didn’t have from learning from the people who were in those positions and so, a lot of that just came down to, I think, intellectual humility and being willing to raise my hand and say, hey even though I managed you, I don’t really know all that much about product marketing or brand marketing or whatever it was and I’ve got like 50,000 questions I’d love for you to answer. And by being a student of those disciplines and of those people even when I managed them, I was able to learn it pretty quickly and round out my marketing expertise and then when I went into my next CMO role I was much better prepared to weigh I on the substance of disciplines outside of quantitative marketing, not just weave them from a managerial perspective.
Dave Knox: That makes sense. You mentioned you were kind of surprised when you started getting those calls about CMO roles. If you look back, a lot of people aspire for that CMO seat, that’s what they’re building their career on. What advice would you give to somebody that that’s the eventual goal that they have, ending up in a seat like yours?
Jeff Weiser: Great question. I think as I reflect on why I was so surprised, to be honest, I think a lot of it comes down to, we’re so biased by how we think of ourselves and so, to this moment, even though I’ve been a CMO for, I don’t know, call it 3-4 years at this point, I don't think of myself as an analyst. I mean I’m wired to want to break problems into constituent parts and put them back together and solve and so, a lot of that had to do with the way I was looking at myself, not necessarily the way other were looking at me, meaning that there would be plenty of people who would say, oh no that’s fine, like it’s easy to learn or easier to learn brand marketing than to try to pick up statistics as a brand marketer, right? So I think that was part of it, but there’s also an element of truth to it. I remember when I had to announce to the company I was at and the people I managed there that I was leaving after six years to take my first CMO gig and someone said something like, I heard Jeff’s leaving because he got a C level title in a public company, which was a partial truth and so I said to him, oh so you’re going to be CFO? There was an element of truth that given my wiring sort of CFO or CMO as the eventual path and probably I had thought of myself more in the former pocket. In terms of people who actually, unlike me, know what they want to be when they grow up, and are actively aspiring to this thing that I was fortunate to fall into. I would say that whether it’s what does it take to be a CMO or what does it take to be anything, telling people actively what you want gets you a large part of the way. Meaning, I’ll now ask people who are more junior to me in my organization, what are your goals? What do you want to be? And help them get there. You’d be shocked at how often people haven’t said to their mentors, to their bosses, whoever it is, like here’s where I want to be going, please keep in mind continuously how I can get there and give me any feedback that would help. What I tell people is number one, articulate it is what you want. No one can help you get there if they don’t want it and certainly don’t be bashful about having ambition or aspiration. And I say that especially to groups that are under represented. I find myself saying it to women more, for example. They tend to be less forward about stating their ambitions. So, number one is articulate what it is that you want. Number two, dial in on marketing specifically, I think there is an element which being a polymap is becoming increasingly important. So no one is going to become an expert in all things marketing, I’m certainly not, but knowing the basics in the discipline across quantitative marketing and breaking down growth into acquisition and CRM and knowing a thing or two about brand marketing and product marketing and PR and things like that, I think it’s more helpful than if I’d be in other disciplines. Meaning I’m going to get out of my zone here, but if you’re a computer scientist, knowing the first two commands in a language may not get you very far, but in marketing it kind of will and so, I think when you think about some people talk about being T shaped, meaning being wide and not especially deep in one domain. I feel like marketing discipline where being T shaped may help more than average.
Dave Knox: I love that. I think the advice you gave of tell people where you want to go is so valuable. When I was at Proctor and Gamble we used to have something called the WBP, which was your work and development plan and one of the questions was where do you want to be six months from now and where do you want to be three years from now. And when I started using that at other companies, it was amazing how many people were shocked that I was asking that because often times where you want to be from three years from now isn’t reporting to the same person in the same job and that’s uncomfortable I think, for a lot of people to have that conversation.
Jeff Weiser: Yeah and you’ll be in a position to answer this because you used that framework, but did you find that a lot of people didn’t even know themselves, meaning that not only had they not articulated the answer to you or to whoever their mentors were but that they actually hadn’t even answered it for themselves? That’s what I find.
Dave Knox: Oh yeah, they hadn’t answered it for themselves or frankly the self actualization of what they want to be was what they thought they needed to do to advance at the company not necessarily what was actually going to be personally fulfilling to them.
Jeff Weiser: Yeah, I appreciate you saying that. I actually had a conversation with someone within the last couple of weeks where I actually asked them, we were talking about their aspirations and I said, okay, I want you to strip out any bias towards the idea that one area you might choose is more conducive to getting ahead. Let’s just imagine for a minute, and it may not be true, but let’s just imagine that your promotion potential is equal across all disciplines. Now where would you want to spend your time and then we added back after the fact the reality that that may not be true, meaning there may be an area that that lends itself to your advancement more, but it’s worth doing the thought experiment nonetheless, just to know what you really enjoy doing day in and day out.
Talent is a big part of Predicting the Turn. And as we talk about talent, I wanted to mention one of our sponsors, Hunt Club. Imagine the power of the best marketers in the world, helping you to find your next marketing leader. That's the power of Hunt Club. Hunt Club is a new category of talent company that powers the network of experts, connectors and business leaders to help you find the best talent. Let's face it, recruiting hasn't changed with the times. Hunt Club is changing the recruiting game by leveraging technology, and crowdsource referrals to find you the best people possible for your company. Stop paying job boards that don't work, or recruiting firms that recycle the same active candidates. Partner with Hunt Club.
Dave Knox: You mentioned when people heard you were making the switch over to Shutterstock you called out it was going from a private company to a public company. What have you found is the differences in that? Because I think that relates to of the aspirations, oh I want to go after the big company because it’s the big title or the big job. What have you found the differences and how do you advise people on that space?
Jeff Weiser: Yeah, great question. I really like being, I’ll start by answering something you didn’t specifically ask, which did I really like working for public companies, but I think it’s one of those double edged swords where the things that I happen to like about it would probably be the very same things that someone who didn’t like it would call out. And what I mean by that is that the public company, especially in a marketing role where you’re likely to be spending a lot of money, calls for a lot of transparency. So I love the idea that when we spend money, we have to say pretty clearly not only to our internal stakeholders, but also to the street, here’s how we spent the money, here’s why we spent the money. Here’s how we thought about what the right amount to spend was and here are the results and it will be transparent for everyone to see. I think that forces really clear thinking and ensures that everything you do is truly defensible because not just your manager, the CEO is watching. Really everyone is watching and so I just like that transparency and accountability. There may be others who don’t feel like explaining themselves to the rest of the world. I’ve been in companies that have thought about going public and ultimately started to put the breaks on and said, listen, why do we want to be explaining ourselves to a bunch of 25-year-old analysts on a call every quarter? We know we know what we’re doing. There’s other ways to get liquidity and so we just don’t want the burden of the transparency of the public environment, so I think there’s reasonable conclusions you can draw from that same set of information on either side. As a marketer, what I would say is that, there’s another reason that being in a public company is particularly interesting and it has to do with the way you think about return on marketing spends. So, a lot of companies will think about a return requirement on their ad spend, meaning if I’m going to spend $100 or even $1, on advertising, how much revenue or gross profit does it have to create, meaning what is my requirement for the productivity of marketing dollars I spend and sometimes what happens is that when you spend the marketing dollars to acquire a customer, they don’t create that revenue or gross profit contribution in the same period. Meaning I might spend to acquire you, Dave, as a customer today, but you might not contribute to a break even point for a year or two years or five years. And in a private company you can always optimize your marketing spend to lifetime results, meaning if I spend to acquire you today, we go in a financial hole on that advertising event, but we claw back to it in a year and are profitable in three years, no one necessarily needs to know that. But in a public company you could end up with period mismatches, meaning I spent a lot of money to acquire customers today. They’re not going to be a break even until a year from now and now it looks like we have a mismatch on our financials between revenue and advertising spend this quarter and so having to keep in mind simultaneously lifetime economics and period economics and balancing the two in a public company is really really interesting. I’ve been very fortunate to work for public companies that were built for the long term, meaning like, there’s no sense in which Shopify or Shutterstock was telling me no, optimize for what we’re going to say to Wall Street this quarter. They’ll built for the long term, both of them. They’re high growth long term companies, but nonetheless, keeping that balance of the period and the lifetime in mind simultaneously is super interesting to me.
Dave Knox: Without a doubt and that’s an interesting analogy too, before the call we were talking about the whole disrupting yourself and how big companies things about this and there’s this tension of not just in marketing, but overall business strategy of as the rise of activist investors and everything else, meeting those quarterly numbers, it’s tough if you’re sitting in the C Suite of how do you invest in the long term of innovation and disruption while fighting against the quarter. How have you thought about that balance?
Jeff Weiser: I haven’t really though about, in a certain way it goes back to marketing, maybe I’ve become rewired to think that way, but I think a lot of it comes down as so many things do, to storytelling, meaning, you have to have a track record of credibility for this to work, but if you can look that analyst in the eye and say, listen, you know we spent more this quarter and it’s because we’re investing in something and there’s some amount of detail we can give you on what that investment is in and what it will yield, but there may very well be some things we don’t want to tell you about now for competitive reasons. We don’t want to show our hand, if you can tell a clear story about why you’re doing it, what results you expect it to get and ideally where the investment is going, then if you’ve got credibility and a track record of following through successfully on those reinvestments of capital then I think the street will buy it. So I’ll take Shopify as an example. I’m very fortunate in that when we’ve said we’re going to reinvest our capital in growth, we’ve done so successfully and therefore I would hope we have a lot of credibility with the street, but that’s not a trust you want to break.
Dave Knox: Yeah, without a doubt. Let’s dig in on Shopify a little bit more. Amazing company that has 600,000 stores that use it, $82 billion in sales. You’re the epitome of the company that is selling pick axes in the gold rush. You are as the retail industry is transforming, you guys have infrastructure that’s empowering entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes to move into ecommerce. So you’ve got this unique lens of where the retail industry is going. What are you seeing over the next 5-10 yeas? How are we going to see this transformation of what retail really means?
Jeff Weiser: Many people are focused on the directionality of trends and they forget about the magnitude and so, we’ve talked a lot over the last few years about ecommerce and especially the rise of D to C, direct to consumer ecommerce. People forget that just under 90% of retail sales still happen offline. So in terms of the core, the first thing that Shopify ever did, which is make it easy to sell things on the web, there’s so much growth left to come and it’s just worth keeping that in mind in terms of all these, retail is dead narratives, yeah but it’s alive to the tune of 88-89%, which is worth keeping in mind. But I think even if you could play that tape forward, which we can and it will be 85 and then it will be 80 and then it will be 75. We can play that tape forward, but it’s a little bit of a simplistic narrative as well, meaning that so many D to C companies that we’ve seen, I’m thinking of like your All Birds and some of these great companies that go from nothing to huge brands overnight, a lot of them once they’ve sort of skinned and disrupted direct to consumer ecommerce go the other direction and first maybe they open a pop up store. The next thing you know they’ve got a retail location and so on the one hand we’re facilitating a move of retail dollars online, but for the folks who really nail it online, we’re actually moving back with them through our point of sales solutions back off line. And so I think it’s a little bit of a marketing or business platitude to talk about omni channel, but I really do think that’s where we’re going to end up and Shopify comes at it from one direction but we’ll be everywhere where our merchants want to sell.
Dave Knox: Yeah, I think anybody that wants to say the mantra of retail is dead, you just need to walk down the streets of SoHo and you see that every single B to C business out there, that’s where they’re launching. They’re starting the Bonova’s and the All Birds and they all have this physical presence because people still love ….
Jeff Weiser: It’s crazy and I love that. Those are really nice, those are really my favorite brands and I’m so lucky because I had become, maybe in a year or so before I joined Shopify, I had become like a real D to C junky, oh I figured it out. I can get everything better at half price without the middle man with a brand that speaks to me and way better customer service, this is incredible. So getting to work for the platform that’s effectively the outsource supply chain for that whole industry has just been incredible.
Dave Knox: Yeah, without a doubt and I think one of the power, thinking about it’s good to get a good brand name right from the day one, Shopify itself is such a great name because people love shopping. Buying has been what’s been done most of the time on ecommerce, which shopping has been a horrible experience.
Jeff Weiser: I love that. Sorry, I didn’t mean to interrupt you, but I just love that distinction, the way you said that. I hadn’t necessarily thought about it in those terms, but one of the things that we talk about as a true differentiator for Shopify is that we let you own your brand, right? So people will say, they’re going to start their business in sell on, I won’t call them out, but like think about notable market places, right? Well those notable market places, you can start your business there, but they probably own the branding. It doesn’t really look like what your brand is. They own the customer, certainly own the customer relationship. They may even be setting your prices, right? And so when I think about the difference between selling or buying as you say and shopping, I really do think it’s implicit in the name Shopify that we’re allowing you to create a shopping experience by infusing your sales and your commerce with your brand identity. We tell the story a lot of the woman who’s on the marketing team at Shopify who used to sell on Etsy. She sells LBGTQ apparel and when she sold on Etsy people would say hey, thanks for selling that t-shirt, it’s super cool. When she was able to use her personality and creativity into the store she built on Shopify people said to her things like, I’m so glad you created this brand. I came out to my parents wearing this t-shirt. Pretty different message, but it was because we let her be who she was and put it all over her commerce experience and so, I think the distinction, I hadn’t quite thought of it that way, the difference between shopping and buying in that sense if very real.
Dave Knox: Yeah, no doubt about it. Pulling back my heritage of shopper marketing through the P&G days for sure. Talk about that heritage, you’re career path has really put you at the forefront of this thing called performance marketing. Being just a tool a for direct marketers to something that everyone from CPG to retail to technology had to embrace and many times frankly learn. So, how do you think about the intersection of performance marketing on one side and more traditional brand marketing in today’s landscape?
Jeff Weiser: I just feel that the two areas have stopped being a dichotomy. There was a time when you were either running a performance marketing operation meaning, we’re going to try to attribute customers or orders back to media events. We’ll ensure that based on that allocation there’s a ratio of lifetime value to spend that’s productive for economics and that was performance marketing or you were sort of like, oh I’m building a brand, let’s just throw a bunch of advertising at the wall and hope the whole thing comes out good. What I’ve noticed now and I spend a lot of time thinking about, what’s really the difference between D to C and what people used to call DR, what’s really the difference? I think that they’re meeting in the middle. I think that folks, that we think of as the modern day D to C winners know the mathematics behind performance marketing that all the old school DR shops used to run. But they’ve also ingested the lesson of brand which is like the old DR guys might play a little trick to slip another billing through and I think that maybe the length of the optimization window in D to C performance marketing is just longer because there’s been a realization that yeah you can know that map and run the economics but it’s a long game and you got to treat the customers well and create incredible experiences as well. So people are actually thinking of these hybrid words. I’ve heard people refer to branded response, that capture the interception of performance marketing and direct response we’re experiencing it now. So I just see the two fusing where it’s like we understand what the map would say in a short performing marketing scheme. We understand the incredible experiences and the identity and meaning you’ve got to create in a brand world and we’re going to apply our own sounds judgment to create an experience that’s at the intersection of the two and takes the best of both worlds.
Dave Knox: Yeah and that’s an intersection I think a lot more people need to be paying attention to, so it’s a great way to kind of articulate it. You look at challenging yourself as a marketer and thinking about that environment and kind of a lot of what shapes you, what brands and companies out there are serving as an inspiration for you right now?
Jeff Weiser: I thought about this a lot because I haven’t been able to exactly put my finger on what’s the one brand that encapsulates exactly the way I would want to do marketing and where I’ve sort of netted out is that, there’s a way that our CEO, Tobi, thinks about this, which is really smart, which is essentially don’t figure out who in your space is good and try to be better than they are. Figure out what space is the best at each facet and try to be as good as the best player in each space. So meaning if I want to be the best marketing organization in the world, I want to be as good at performance marketing as Booking is or Expedia or whoever’s really great on the travel side and those companies are just awesome and on the brand side I want to be as good as Apple or Nike or some of the really emotive brands that can sort of raise emotion in you when you see their advertising and so I really try to think about for each thing we’re doing, who kicks ass at that and then try and get as good as they are.
Dave Knox: That’s brilliant, I love that. Technology has had a dramatic impact on marketing over the last decade with the rise of mart tech, ad tech and pretty much everything throwing tech into it, but it hasn’t solved everything. So what problems or inefficiencies in marketing are you hoping or waiting for technology to still address?
Jeff Weiser: The thing that I would most like marketing technologies to create is some transparency. So, I feel like marketing technology has largely been built to bring data technology and analysis to marketers who aren’t trained in that field and that’s sort of let them get by on being black boxes and so I think the thing that I haven’t seen yet is a technology that says okay I’m going to ingest your company’s data and I’m going to make an optimization decision and then I’m going to expose to you what data elements we mined. What the elasticity is of prediction work, what made this model actually tick? And typically what will happen is folks will come in and try to sell me a marketing technology and I’ll say, okay well that technology is making a decision to suppress, for example, half the eligible universe in my retargeting, or that technology is making a decision of how much to bid on X, Y or Z or what kind of content to serve to A, B or C customers, how’s it doing it? And someone will usually, someone well intentioned will usually say something like oh it’s being done, don’t worry we have a proprietary algorithm. And I’m like, okay, what’s the algorithm do? And that’s often where the conversation ends and so it’s like, I appreciate that a lot of these have some sort of secret sauce to them, but I do think there are ways to bring some transparency to what has been black box solutions without giving away the secret sauce and that’s what’s going to be required as more quant or more people with some background in analytics step into CMO seats, they’re going to want to know how’s this really working if it’s going to make decisions, so again another sort of best of both worlds for me would be yes, please automate that. Please make optimal decision algorithmically, but let me know how you’re doing it. If nothing else, it’s a lost opportunity to learn something about the business. So, if your technology is mining thousands of data element from my datasets to make a decision based on prediction for me, which of those a thousand elements turned out to be relevant? Which ones were predicted? How much? Even if it doesn’t change the way I would use that technology, I’ve just learned something about my business and so the difference between a marketing technology that’s a black box and an internal team of human being data scientists doing the same work often comes down to that. It’s the loss of the exploration of the data and what you can learn about your business through that. So I think that’s the big thing that will eventually have to come will have to be some window into what these things are actually doing to get people comfortable as the people using them become more savvy with technology and data.
Dave Knox: That’s great and talking about that using, place gain more savvy with the technology, right before we started recording the call you were talking a little bit about you have big companies that are starting to realize that tools like Shopify are really how entrepreneurial companies are uniquely building their companies versus maybe relying on historical heritage technology that is complicated, cumbersome and just doesn’t work. What do you think bigger companies need to do to respond to the rise of new brands and new retail channels and kind of new everything?
Jeff Weiser: Yeah, you know I see companies saying they want to disrupt from and we did talk about this a moment ago, and we talked about companies saying things like I really want to disrupt from within or I’m creating a startup within an incumbent or something like that. You know what I would say is they really have to keep it pure in a certain way, meaning if you want to run like a startup, you have to bring in people who know how to do that, let them make mistakes, let them go fast and break things to use Silicon Valley platitude. I don’t think that simply and this may sounds against interest, simply saying oh well you know the successful startups use Shopify, let’s just go buy it is going to get you there. It's a mindset you know, and I think that the success or failure of these big companies is sort of disrupting from the inside will depend on their ability to adopt a mindset not their ability to buy the same tools. So like there’s a, I’ll invoke our CEO again, Tobi, who’s just this brilliant philosophical guy. He talks about something a lot called cargo cult, do you know what that is?
Dave Knox: I didn’t, I haven’t heard that one.
Jeff Weiser: So cargo culting, is, I’ll probably get the story wrong, but I think you’ll get the gist of it. Go back to World War II, this war is being fought all over the world and some islands that have not been exposed to modern technology become the battlegrounds or these staging grounds for some of the big World War II battles, right? And so these islands sort of get taken over and someone comes in and lays down concrete and then big airplanes and jets start landing and they’ve got all sorts of modern technology and better food and warmer clothing than the native inhabitants of the island have ever seen before. Anyway, flash forward, war ends, everyone goes home, years later the inhabitants of the island can still be seen standing at the end of the strip of concrete, the runway waving orange flags. Right? And this has essentially become a religion where they believe if they wave the orange batons like amazing technology will fall out of the sky. And to him that’s cargo culting, right? You’re doing something because you believe it will create a causal reaction when it’s just in fact a correlation. So, in the same way that the jet fighters didn’t come out of the sky with amazing technologies and goods because there was someone there waving them in with orange flags, adopting the veneer of startup culture or the tooling of startup companies won’t get you there either, that would just be cargo culting. You really need to be able to adopt the mindset and that’s always the harder part.
Dave Knox: Yeah, and I think that is an awesome place to end on. So, I really appreciate you taking the time to talk with us today. Love what you are doing with Shopify and your kind of view on the world. So thank you for taking the time.
Jeff Weiser: Thanks so much. It’s been really fun.
Dave Knox: Thanks so much for listening. If you like the show, hit that rating and make sure to subscribe so you don't miss a single episode. And for more resources, head over to predictingtheturn.com.